The development process is about change and transformation. Economies evolve. Societies and cultures evolve. Nature evolves. But they evolve at different speeds, creating stresses that need to be addressed and managed.²² Moreover, in an era of globalization, the growing scale and speed of change in human activity are in some cases outpacing the rate at which natural processes and life-support systems can adapt.²³ Globalization and faster technological change are also altering the nature of social interaction and affecting the efficacy of existing institutions. Although globalization and technological change offer many benefits, they can have deleterious side effects if institutions at local, national, and international levels do not evolve fast enough to deal with the adverse spillovers. The consequences of previous patterns of development are also beginning to bind, restricting certain growth paths or making them more costly.²⁴

But these processes, if managed well, can create new opportunities. Of the many interrelated drivers of change and transformation, four stand out: scientific and technological innovation, income growth, population growth, and urbanization. The first two are likely to continue changing preferences and providing new opportunities to satisfy these preferences. The demographic and urban transitions, by contrast, are one-time changes, and the opportunities they offer are perhaps less well recognized. These are discussed in the next section.

Scientific and technological innovation. The flow of information and ideas, boosted greatly by the Internet, can enable developing countries to learn more rapidly from each other and from industrial countries. It can also facilitate the emergence of networks to monitor a wider array of development impacts. Other technological changes can enable developing countries to leapfrog stages in the development process that rely on inefficient uses of natural resources. Science and technology can help address major socioeconomic problems. As noted, the green revolution was critical in enabling many developing countries to avoid widespread starvation. To benefit from these opportunities, institutions are needed that can stimulate and diffuse technological innovations and avoid or mitigate any deleterious consequences.

Income growth. A projected growth in global income of 3 percent a year over the next 50 years implies a fourfold increase in global GDP. Increasing income growth may place a strain on the environmental and social fabric if there is too little attention to shifting consumption and production patterns. But this future economic growth will also require major investments in new human-made capital to expand capacity and to replace existing capacity as it ages. Making these investments (many of which are long lived) more environmentally and socially responsible through appropriate investment criteria will go a long way toward putting development on a more sustainable path-an opportunity not to be missed.